ARP's Crypto Digest

ARP’s Crypto Digest

General Digital Asset Market View:

Bitcoin ETFs experienced varied flows, with notable inflows into Blackrock’s $IBIT and significant outflows from Grayscale’s $GBTC. 

Despite the overall market downturn, Blackrock’s ETF showed resilience, consistently attracting investments, including a substantial $34M inflow on one day. Fidelity’s $FBTC also saw notable activity, with a significant $61M inflow towards the week’s end. In contrast, Grayscale’s $GBTC faced continuous outflows, peaking at $72M. 

Overall, the market experienced a quiet period, with minimal net movement, reflecting a summer pause in trading activities. Despite this, some ETFs continue to accumulate the orange pill.

More Crypto:

Bitcoin ETFs Latest 13f filing data

Capula Management and Avenir add Bitcoin positions:

• Capula: 2.6% of portfolio ($470m)

• Avenir: 50% of portfolio ($388m)

Notable changes:

• Millennium reduced from 0.33% to 0.19% ($537m decline).

• Goldman Sachs holds $419m, likely for clients.

• Morgan Stanley: $87m outflow, now at $203m.

• Other significant outflows were from DCG, SIG Holding and Jane Street.

Top Bitcoin holders by type:

• Investment advisors: $4.7B.

• Brokerages: $1.5B.

• Hedge Funds: $3.8B.

• Holding companies: $1.1B.

Note: 13F filings offer quarterly snapshots of institutional BTC ETF holdings but don’t reveal full investment strategies. Not all holdings indicate bullish stances on BTC. Firms may use ETFs for volatility trading, offsetting short positions, or basis trades exploiting spot futures price differences.

The Volatility Adjusted Power Law Index (also know as the “VPLI”) is a Power Law chart that incorporates volatility adjustments where other charts do not. By correcting for volatility, this model helps provide investors and analysts with clear Bitcoin value regions indicating across the Bitcoin lifecycle.

When the chart is “hot” (indicated by red values on the chart), this represents the Bitcoin price is overbought relative to its historical average.

When the chart is “cold” (indicated by blue values on the chart), this represents the Bitcoin price is oversold relative to its historical average.

Based on the chart above, the current VPLI value is in the green zone, indicating that Bitcoin is neither overbought (red) nor oversold (blue). This suggests that the price is closer to its historical average and not at an extreme.

What Happened This Week:

• Marathon Digital made another Bitcoin buy of 4,144 Bitcoins worth $249M, bringing its total Bitcoin reserve to 25,000.

• A recent ruling by the Dubai Court of First Instance recognized salary payments in cryptocurrency as valid under employment contracts in the UAE.

• Binance makes an official return to India after registering with India’s Financial Intelligence Unit — FIU-IND. 

• Bitcoin ETF adoption by institutions grows 27% in Q2.

What to Look Out For:

• Trump organization to launch a cryptocurrency initiative, Eric Trump says, related to “digital real estate”.

• South Korea’s national pension fund bought $33.7 million worth of MicroStrategy shares in Q2

• WHO declares mpox (monkeypox) a global public health emergency for second time in two years.

• Wallet connected to Silk Road [US GOV] moved 9.4k BTC to coinbase Prime.

• Traders have cooled a bit on their expectations for interest rate cuts, particularly in September, where the odds of a larger 50-basis-point reduction are now less than 50%.

What we enjoyed reading and listening to:

• The Reason Why LPs Lose More Money Than You Think — Link

• Understanding Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAGs) — Link

• Caitlin Long on Why the Fed’s Rejections of Custodia Bank Seem Politically Motivated — Link

• Risk Limit Exceeded — Link

ARP Digital is regulated by the Central Bank of Bahrain as a Category 3 Crypto Asset Service Provider. All communications and services are directed at Professional Clients only, persons other than Professional Clients, such as Retail Clients, are NOT the intended recipients of our communications or services. ARP Digital does not provide investment advice, and nothing herein shall be considered, construed as, or deemed to be, investment advice. Furthermore, nothing herein is intended to be, or shall constitute, an offer or invitation to buy securities or any form of financial instrument or investment product by ARP Digital or any of its related parties or persons.