ARP's Crypto Digest

ARP’s Crypto Digest

General Digital Asset Market View:

By the end of the first week of September, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows totaling $706.1 million. Most funds saw outflows or no inflows, with the largest outflow from Fidelity’s FBTC at $162.3 million, followed by Grayscale’s GBTC at $52.9 million. 

The largest outflow occurred on September 3, amounting to -$287.8 million. Additionally, the net flows are currently in an 8 day outflows streak. Following these outflows, Bitcoin’s price saw significant volatility, dropping to $54,260 on Sept. 8th, with the lowest point reaching $52,500 on Sept. 7th.

More Crypto:

In August, the market saw significant token unlocks, with SUI standing out due to its impressive performance. Despite substantial unlocks, SUI managed to achieve a cumulative return of 45%. Here’s a more detailed breakdown:

SUI

• Unlock Value: $45 million

• Cumulative Return: 45%

In contrast, XRP faced a challenging month. Despite a much larger unlock value, its returns were nearly breakeven. 

XRP

• Unlock Value: $600 million

• Cumulative Return: Nearly breakeven

Bitcoin is currently in the mid-$50,000s, experiencing consolidation with some downward volatility. This has tested investors’ patience, especially as US stocks and gold near all-time highs. Bitcoin remains over 20% below its peak.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 22, showing fear. Since August, the market has mostly been in this fearful state. Over the past year, Bitcoin had two days of extreme fear, especially during the Aug. 5 yen carry trade unwind. In total, there were 44 days of fear, 89 of neutrality, 215 of greed, and 15 of extreme greed.

Over the last seven years, Bitcoin spent about 45% of the time in fear or extreme fear, compared to 30% in greed or extreme greed. This highlights the frequent uncertainty despite its growth potential.

What Happened This Week:

• SEC warns FTX against paying creditors back in stablecoins, other crypto — SEC says it reserves its rights to challenge transactions involving crypto assets.

• A federal judge rejected Coinbase’s bid to dismiss a proposed class action by shareholders who accused Coinbase of downplaying the likelihood it would be sued by SEC.

• WisdomTree Ethereum Trust files to withdraw registration statement.

• Polymarket has been integrated by the Bloomberg Terminal.

What to Look Out For:

• Binance will list Polygon’s new token POL on Sept. 13.

• The proposal for launching STRK staking is expected to go live next week.

• Solana’s Breakpoint conference is on Sept. 20–21.

• US CPI Data will be released on Sept. 11.

What we enjoyed reading and listening to:

• Potential of Machine Learning in Bitcoin — Link

• Bitcoin Bull Market Correction Drawdown — Link

• The Bitcoin Power Law is Falsified by Inflationary Currencies is a Bad Reason Fallacy — Link

• Bitcoin Decay Channel Oscillator — Link

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