ARP's Crypto Digest

General Digital Asset Market View:

Between February 10–15, Bitcoin ETFs saw significant volatility with four consecutive days of outflows: $186.32M (Feb 10), $56.72M (Feb 11), $250.96M (Feb 12), and $156.88M (Feb 13), mostly tied to Fidelity. BlackRock saw modest inflows during this period. On February 14, inflows rebounded to $70.6M, led by Fidelity ($94M) and BlackRock ($22.34M). The week's net flow totaled -$580.2M.

Bitcoin's price was also volatile, falling to $95,000 after U.S. tariffs and inflation concerns, before rallying mid-week to $98,000 on news of diplomatic talks between Trump and Putin. It is now trading at $97,000.

Macro:

A relatively quiet week from a US macro POV. The initial run of regional Fed PMIs will kick off alongside the S&P flash PMIs on Friday (incl for G7 & India). It’s a busy week in the UK with the latest labour market report, inflation data and retail sales all on the docket. Japan Q4 GDP and January’s nationwide inflation report will also be important along with Korean 20-day trade data. From a monetary policy POV, January’s FOMC minutes are the key event in addition to both antipodean central banks meeting (RBA & RBNZ). The US is closed for President’s Day on February 17 and G-20 foreign minister meetings will run February 20–21. We are a week out from the German election (due 23 Feb) so all eyes on final polls.

More Crypto:

Binance has become the largest USDC market, with weekly trading volumes hitting $24bn in January — 49% of global USDC volume, its highest share since September 2022. This surge follows its strategic partnership with Circle in late 2024, aimed at expanding USDC adoption.

In contrast, Bybit’s dominance has dropped from 38% in October to just 8% today, following its decision to reintroduce trading fees on USDC pairs and phase out USDC-settled options and futures by the end of the month.

Bullish has emerged as a strong competitor, now rivaling Binance with a 32% share of the USDC market.

Peer-to-peer transactions have become a major force behind stablecoin supply growth, highlighting the impact of network effects.

DEXs have contributed to recent surges, but their influence has been less pronounced over time.

The market cap of altcoins dropped by $234 billion in the past two weeks, while BTC remains more stable. This has contributed to the market sentiment falling back to Dec 2023 levels after being at ATH just 2 months ago

Despite investors’ realized losses of $520 million — the largest in this cycle — it’s still much lower than the $1.3 billion in losses recorded in August 2023. 

What Happened This Week:

• Trump signed the “Reciprocal Trade and Tariffs” executive orders, directing a global tariff review. 

• GameStop is reportedly considering investing in Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency.

• The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has confirmed the receipt of Grayscale’s amendment to the Spot $XRP, $DOGE ETF application.

• Coinbase’s Q4 revenue was predicted to be around $1.9B, but the company beat expectations by a wide margin, reporting $2.3B, up 88% QoQ.

• The National Bank of Canada has made a significant investment by purchasing Bitcoin ETFs valued at $2M.

• Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund Stockpiles $436 Million in BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Shares.

What to Look Out For:

• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick aims to complete the “Reciprocal Trade and Tariffs” order by April 1.

• The OpenSea Foundation has announced that $SEA is coming. No specific timeline has been announced yet.

• Cboe files 19b-4 seeking SEC approval of staking in 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF.

• Bloomberg ETF analysts have tipped a 90% chance that the US securities regulator will approve a Spot $LTC ETF before the end of the year. They also rated the $SOL $XRP $DOGE ETF as having a high probability of approval.

• Japan’s Financial Services Agency is working on a system to regulate cryptocurrencies on par with securities, with the launch of a Bitcoin Spot ETF in mind.

What we enjoyed reading and listening to:

• What Big Companies Are Building on Ethereum — Link

• Defining decentralization: It comes down to control — Link

• The Next Platform Shift in Fintech — Link

• How real is the AI economy? — Link

• Not QE, QE” is coming — Link

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