ARP's Crypto Digest

General Digital Asset Market View:

Over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced sharp volatility, briefly dipping below $76K after Trump unexpectedly raised China tariffs to 125%, triggering trade war fears. It later rebounded to close at $84K (+2.33%), driven by temporary relief — delayed tariffs on other countries and a softer-than-expected CPI (2.4% vs. 2.5%). Despite the bounce, sentiment remained bearish, with the Fear & Greed Index hitting 18 (“Extreme Fear”).

Institutional flows reflected this fragility: spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $870M in outflows across seven straight sessions. BlackRock alone reportedly offloaded $340M+, with consistent sell pressure from Grayscale, Fidelity, and Ark. While Ark did buy $11.3M on April 11, this was marginal in the broader context. Altcoins like Ethereum lagged, showing weak follow-through. With macro risks and fragile sentiment, BTC’s near-term outlook remains choppy and reactive to headlines.

Macro:

Whilst markets will continue to track the latest tariff news closely, monetary policy decisions from the ECB, BoC and BoK will also keep the focus on policymakers’ reaction function to trade uncertainty next week . Economic indicators will feature March activity and pricing activity data in the US (import prices, regional Fed PMIs, retail sales, industrial and housing data), Q1 GDP in China as well as inflation in the UK and Japan. The US and UK are closed on Friday for Easter.

More Crypto:

Bitcoin is drifting below crucial thresholds — the 111DMA at $93K and the 200DMA at $87K — recently brushing the 365DMA at $76K.

These zones once served as bull market anchors, but slipping through them could hint at a broader shift in sentiment.

This image perfectly answers all major questions on the $ETH underperformance.

• 32% supply in profit for $ETH vs. 85% for $BTC

• Same holding pattern (holders time share) as in the case of $BTC.

• 55% of the supply in the hands of large holders (lots of Web3 companies here) → higher supply centralization vs. BTC.

What Happened This Week:

• President Trump signs resolution overturning IRS crypto rule targeting DeFi.

• New Hampshire House passes Bitcoin Reserve Bill.

• Pro-Bitcoin Paul Atkins confirmed as SEC Chair.

• China says it is willing to negotiate tariffs but will “fight to the end” if the US refuses to compromise.

What to Look Out For:

• US President Trump is open to making a new trade deal with China, White House says.

• Grayscale has updated its “Assets Under Consideration” list, outlining digital assets currently being evaluated for potential inclusion in future investment products.

• Circle is reportedly delaying its IPO process.

• Arthur Hayes Predicts More Policy Response This Weekend If the Current Trends Persists.

What we enjoyed reading and listening to:

• State of Venture Capital in Crypto, Q1 2025 — Link

• Digital Asset Fund Flow — Link

• Survey Finds Crypto AI Adoption Still in Early Stages — Link

• 55 Million Americans Use Crypto — And Construction Workers Are Big Fans: Report — Link

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