ARP's Crypto Digest

General Digital Asset Market View:

Between March 10 and 15, Bitcoin experienced price swings influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic signals. While positive data drove recoveries, concerns over tariffs and inflation persisted. Key developments included the SEC revisiting XRP’s classification and investments in blockchain projects like Mesh and Axelar, reflecting the growing impact of regulation on crypto’s future.

On March 10 and 11, Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of -$369.3M and -$371M, marking the third and fourth consecutive negative days as Bitcoin fell below $77K. On March 12, inflows of +$13.3M were driven by Ark’s +$82.6M, while BlackRock recorded outflows of -$46.36M, reflecting Bitcoin’s price recovery amid positive geopolitical and economic developments. On March 13 and 14, outflows resumed at -$135.2M and -$56.17M, with BlackRock showing +$47.69M inflows on March 13 but -$93.17M outflows on March 14, highlighting mixed market sentiment.

Macro:

Central banks will be in focus next week with decisions due from the Fed, the BoJ, the BoE, the SNB and CBC in Taiwan. From a US high-frequency data POV, highlights include retail sales, IP, import prices, housing and the usual run of claims data. Elsewhere the monthly release of Chinese activity data will be in focus alongside labour market data in the UK and inflation prints in Japan and Canada. From a government POV, Germany is due to vote on its revised fiscal plan on Tuesday now that the Greens are on board.

More Crypto:

With Bitcoin slipping under $80,000, nearly 70% of sellers are recent buyers panicking at the decline.

Historically, such breakdowns trigger rebounds, making sub-$80K levels attractive for buying while $92,800 remains a key resistance for exits and short re-entries.

SOPR remains above 1, signaling that most Bitcoin holders are still moving coins at a profit — consistent with a bull market.

Funding rates also remain positive, mirroring the pattern seen in the 2020–21 bull run. These indicators suggest the bull trend is still intact.

What Happened This Week:

• Spain’s second largest bank, BBVA, receives approval to offer Bitcoin & Ethereum trading.

• Thailand’s Regulator Recognizes Tether’s USDT as an Approved Cryptocurrency in Major Step for Digital Assets.

• SEC to stop requiring crypto companies to register as trading systems.

• Crypto dot com obtains regulatory license to offer crypto futures & perpetual to institutions and qualified investors in Dubai.

• Gold hits new ATH, rises to $3,000 for the first time.

What to Look Out For:

• Michael Saylor’s Strategy to raise up to $21 billion to buy more bitcoin.

• The US Department of Housing and Urban Development is reportedly looking to experiment with stablecoin to fund grants and tracking it using blockchain.

• Texas Rep. Ron Reynolds introduces House Bill 4258 to invest $250M in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.

• Bank of Russia to allow Bitcoin and crypto buying for limited investors.

• Singapore Exchange plans to list Bitcoin perpetual futures as traditional exchanges push deeper into crypto derivative markets.

What we enjoyed reading and listening to:

• Why Everyone Hates Crypto, And How We Fix It — Link

• 52 Trading Never-Dos: Lessons Every Trader Learns The Hard Way — Link

• Is Macro Punishment Over? — Link

• Crypto Strategic Reserve and Crypto Leaders Dunking on Trump — Link

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